Have Commercial Insurance Rates Decreased Since 2025?
Commercial insurance rates have shown a clear downward trend since early 2025, shifting from years of increases to a softening market in late 2025 and into 2026. This change benefits many businesses, though it varies by line of coverage and risk profile.
Overall Global and U.S. Trends
Global commercial insurance rates declined by an average of 4% in Q4 2025, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decrease after seven years of rises, according to Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index. This reflects growing insurer competition, favorable loss experiences, increased capacity, and softer reinsurance pricing. In the U.S., composite rates were flat in Q4 2025 after a 1% drop in Q3, signaling stabilization with easing pressure. Earlier quarters in 2025 saw modest declines or slowed increases, transitioning from hard-market conditions.
Property Insurance: Significant Decreases
Commercial property lines have experienced the most notable relief. Globally, property rates fell 9% in Q4 2025, with U.S. property decreasing 8%. Factors include a quieter 2025 hurricane season (lower catastrophe losses than expected) and abundant reinsurance capital. Shared or layered programs often saw reductions of 10-30% or more. Experts from USI, WTW, and others describe a "softening trend" continuing into 2026, with competitive conditions for non-catastrophe-exposed risks and opportunities for rate relief, especially for well-managed accounts.
Casualty and Other Lines: Mixed Results
Casualty lines (e.g., general liability, commercial auto) remain firmer due to social inflation, litigation trends, and higher claim severity. While overall commercial rates softened, some liability segments saw continued increases or slower declines. For instance, general liability and auto renewals averaged around 6-7% increases in late 2025 data from sources like Ivans Index, though momentum eased compared to prior peaks. Workers' compensation often trended flat or slightly down.
Outlook for 2026 and Implications
The market is entering a "correction phase" or softening period, with premium growth slowing to modest levels (around 3-4% globally). Property and certain lines offer buyer advantages, including lower premiums and better terms, but casualty pressures persist. Businesses in low-risk categories or with strong loss histories can negotiate savings, while high-exposure risks may face selectivity. Factors like geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, and potential catastrophes could reverse trends, so vigilance remains key. Overall, yes—rates have decreased since early 2025 for many commercial policies, particularly property, marking a buyer-friendly shift.
