Texas at Risk for a Hurricane

High Risk State for 2025 Season

Texas is one of four states at an increased risk of seeing a direct hit from a hurricane or tropical storm during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. Texas is facing an above-average risk of direct hurricane impacts this season, following the devastation of Tropical Storm Beryl last year. Texas could see increased hurricane threats in 2025 because of neutral Pacific conditions, which historically correlate with increased Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, with 13-19 total named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. AccuWeather anticipates 13 to 18 named storms, 7 to 10 of which could develop into hurricanes, with three to five major hurricanes. Forecasters are predicting that three to six storms will directly impact the U.S. this year.

Geographic Vulnerability

A greater risk area seems to be near Houston, though a storm making an impact in southern Texas near Brownsville is still possible. The southeastern coast of Texas is a magnet for hurricanes. With extreme weather conditions like flash floods and rising rivers in other geographic sub-regions, the entire state of Texas is considered to be in a flood zone.

Recent Hurricane History

The most recent hurricane to hit Texas was Hurricane Beryl in June 2024, which broke records when it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form. Houston took a direct hit from Beryl's eyewall, and meteorologists noted similarities to devastating storms like Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Climate Factors Increasing Risk

Rising sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf have warmed to levels never seen before in recorded history, providing extra energy that can supercharge tropical storms and hurricanes. Individuals may have inadequate time to prepare and respond prior to being struck by storms that intensify swiftly in close proximity to the coast.

Conclusion

In 2025, Texas is at a high risk of hurricanes, with meteorologists specifically cautioning of hazards that exceed the average. Recent climate patterns indicate that storms may intensify more swiftly, and the Houston area is particularly vulnerable to the state's entire coastline. Flash floods, tropical storms, hurricanes, and heavy rainfall are prevalent in numerous regions of Texas, resulting in some of the highest property damage costs and fatality rates associated with flooding.