What Is the Prediction for Hurricane Season in 2026?
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 — and forecasters are delivering relatively good news, though they are quick to warn that "below normal" does not mean "safe." Here is the full picture.
NOAA's Official Forecast: Below Normal
The nation's top weather agency is projecting a quieter-than-average season. NOAA's outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season. In specific numbers, NOAA is forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become full hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. For context, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
El Niño Is the Key Driver
The primary reason forecasters expect a calmer season comes down to one major climate pattern. NOAA is citing a strong El Niño weather pattern, warmer ocean temperatures, and weaker trade winds as the main factors behind the below-normal prediction. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported at least an 82% chance that El Niño will arrive by July, though scientists are still monitoring conditions to determine how strong it will be. El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic, which disrupts storm formation and weakens developing systems before they can intensify.
Colorado State and AccuWeather Agree — Mostly
Independent forecasting teams have reached similar conclusions. Colorado State University's Tropical Weather Research Group predicted 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes for the 2026 season. AccuWeather forecast 11 to 16 named storms, also citing El Niño as a key suppressing factor, while noting that multiple storms could still make landfall in the United States this season. T
What It Means for Texas Specifically
Texas should not let a below-normal forecast breed complacency. Colorado State University puts the chance of a landfalling hurricane along the Gulf Coast — from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas — at 20% this season, below the historical average of 27%. Historically, the seasons that most closely resemble 2026's forecast trajectory saw Texas struck by Tropical Storm Bill in 2015 and Tropical Storm Harold in 2023 — proving that even quieter seasons can produce damaging storms.
"It Only Takes One"
Every major forecasting agency is delivering the same bottom-line message. NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs stressed that even in a below-average season, it is critical to stay prepared, noting that major hurricanes have made landfall during below-average seasons before — and that even relatively weak storms have the potential to cause deadly flooding far from the coast. AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert echoed that sentiment, urging everyone from South Texas to Maine to prepare equally regardless of what the official forecast says. In Texas, preparation — including flood insurance, emergency supplies, and evacuation plans — remains essential no matter what the seasonal numbers predict.
