Predictions for the 2026 Hurricane Season
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 — and the nation's top forecasters are largely in agreement: expect a quieter-than-average season, though history warns that quieter does not mean safe. Here is the full picture.
NOAA's Official Forecast: Below Normal
The nation's leading weather agency is projecting a calmer season than recent years. NOAA predicts a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The agency is forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes. That's including 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher, with 70% confidence in these ranges. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
El Niño Is the Season's Defining Factor
A significant change in the climate is the main cause of the muted outlook. One of the main factors influencing the 2026 season will be El Niño. Since the satellite period started in the 1960s, El Niño years have averaged roughly 10 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is much less than La Niña years, which usually generate about 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. By increasing upper-level wind shear, which can tear apart hurricanes as they attempt to form, strong westerly winds triggered by El Niño tend to prevent fledgling Atlantic storms from emerging.
Colorado State and AccuWeather Paint a Similar Picture
The findings of several separate forecasting teams are very similar. Colorado State University says there will be 13 tropical storms, and 6 of them will turn into hurricanes. They say there are "high levels of uncertainty" because the weather is so unpredictable. Even at the high end of the range, AccuWeather predicts 11 to 16 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. This is still less than the 10-year average for both overall storms and hurricanes.
What It Means for Texas Specifically
Texas homeowners can take some measured reassurance from the geographic forecasts. Reports from AccuWeather notes that central and southern Texas are expected to face less risk during the upcoming season, while the central and eastern Gulf Coast, as well as the Carolinas, face a higher-than-average risk of significant tropical impacts. However, hurricane counts are a weak predictor of landfall and loss risk, 1992 produced just four hurricanes and still delivered catastrophic Hurricane Andrew, while 2010 saw 12 hurricanes with zero U.S. landfalls.
"It Only Takes One"
Every major forecaster is delivering the same bottom-line message. CSU meteorologists remind coastal residents that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season, and that thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity. NOAA is also deploying new technology this season. For the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft will be integrated into its hurricane forecast model, improving intensity forecast accuracy by 10%. Preparation remains non-negotiable regardless of what the seasonal numbers say.
