Is the 2026 Hurricane Season Going to Be Bad?
With the start of the summer comes the start of hurricane season, and many want answers to the dreaded question: Will the hurricane season be bad? The short answer from the nation's top forecasters is no — but with one critical caveat that every Texan needs to understand. Here is a breakdown of what is being predicted.
The Official Forecast: Below Normal
Every major forecasting agency is projecting a quieter-than-average season. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season — predicting 8 to 14 total named storms, of which 3 to 6 are forecast to become hurricanes, and 1 to 3 are predicted to reach major hurricane status. For comparison, an average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes — so 2026 is shaping up to be considerably calmer on paper.
CSU Just Lowered Its Forecast Further
The latest update from Colorado State University makes the picture even more subdued. CSU's most recent forecast, released June 10, now calls for just 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes — a downward revision from their April prediction of 13 storms, and well below the 30-year historical average on every metric. The next CSU update is scheduled for July 8, when El Niño's strength will be more fully established.
El Niño Is the Season's Most Powerful Suppressor
The driving force behind the calm forecast is a strengthening climate pattern. One factor expected to exert a big influence on the 2026 hurricane season is a developing El Niño — and it is increasingly possible it could become a super El Niño, in which ocean temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean warm to at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. As of early June 2026, the El Niño that the forecast depends on has become more likely, not less — with the World Meteorological Organization now placing 80% odds on it arriving by summer. El Niño increases upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic, tearing apart developing storms before they can intensify.
AccuWeather Is the One Dissenting Voice
Not every forecaster is as calm as NOAA and CSU. AccuWeather sits above the government consensus at 11 to 16 named storms and 3 to 5 direct U.S. impacts, citing rapid intensification potential from unusually warm, deep Atlantic water as a counterweight to El Niño's suppressing effect. The concern is not storm quantity — it is the possibility that even a small number of storms could intensify rapidly and dangerously before reaching the coast.
Why "Below Normal" Does Not Mean "Safe"
Every forecasting agency is delivering the same bottom line. NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham emphasized that although El Niño's impact in the Atlantic basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold — stressing that it only takes one storm to make for a very bad season. CSU meteorologists close every forecast with the same reminder — there is no skill in predicting specific landfalls, and coastal residents should make thorough preparations every season regardless of predicted activity. For Texas homeowners, that means flood insurance, evacuation plans, and emergency supplies — today, not when a storm is named.
