A COVID Summer Surge

Current Summer Wave Confirmation

Yes, there is a COVID summer surge happening right now. The United States appears to be facing another summer wave of COVID-19, with data showing cases are currently on the rise in more than half of the states. COVID-19 cases are growing or likely growing in at least 26 states and Washington, D.C., as of July 15, 2025, the CDC says. The summer surge of COVID-19 is here, with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showing increases across much of the country.

Established Pattern Recognition

CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook told "CBS Mornings" Monday that this is typical of what we've come to understand about summer spikes in cases. "We now know that there's a winter spike and then there's a summer spike," he said. A CDC analysis published Thursday concluded that the virus has settled into twice-a-year surges nationwide, typically peaking first in July through September and then a second time later in December through February.

Geographic Distribution

COVID-19 cases are growing in 25 states, including Florida, Texas, California, and Ohio, per the CDC. They're likely growing in more than a dozen others. The amount of virus showing up in wastewater has been increasing for weeks. And the number of people testing positive for the virus and showing up in emergency rooms to be treated for COVID has started ticking up in those bellwether parts of the country, too.

New Variants Driving Spread

The virus that causes COVID-19, called SARS-CoV-2, continues to mutate, giving rise to highly transmissible new variants that have evolved to better evade immunity. These include NB.1.8.1 aka "Nimbus," which causes a painful "razor blade throat." Nimbus is now the dominant variant in the U.S., accounting for 43% of cases as of June 21. A new variant called XFG, aka "Stratus," is also spreading rapidly and becoming more prevalent.

Current Activity Levels

While cases are rising, the number of cases is still drastically lower than those this time last year, when the test positivity rate peaked in August at 17.9%. The 2025 season has yet to scrape 5%. As of July 14, weekly test positivity is 5.1%, up about 1% from the previous week, per CDC data. COVID-19 activity nationwide is still considered "low" based on wastewater data, though it has increased from "very low" the previous week.

Expert Predictions and Recommendations

Caitlin Rivers is an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. "We are now seeing the beginnings of the summer COVID surge. We are in the early days of a summer wave". Experts recommend getting vaccinated if you haven't had a shot in about a year, wearing masks during travel, and improving ventilation in indoor spaces. The 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines are still available and recommended for most adults, especially those 65 and older or at high risk for severe COVID-19.

The summer surge is confirmed and underway, following the established biannual pattern, but current levels remain manageable compared to previous years' peaks.