COVID on the Rise in Texas

Current Infection Trends

As of July 15, 2025, COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 27 states, declining or likely declining in 1 state, and not changing in 17 states. The probability that the epidemic is growing is highest in California, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, and Ohio, among others. This indicates that Texas is indeed experiencing rising COVID cases as part of a broader summer surge.

Summer Wave Pattern

The country appears to be seeing a summer surge in COVID-19, with data showing that cases are rising in more than half of America. Health experts note that this follows a predictable pattern. "Every year (since 2020) around Independence Day, we are either already at very high transmission or transmission is really starting to pick up", according to medical professionals tracking the trends.

Wastewater Data Confirms Rise

Although the CDC says the level of COVID viral activity in wastewater is "low" nationally, at least nine states are reporting "moderate," "high" or "very high" levels as of July 12. These include California, Florida, and Texas. This wastewater surveillance data provides early indication of increased viral circulation before clinical cases are reported.

New Variants Contributing to Spread

The rise in Texas cases coincides with the emergence of highly transmissible new variants. The virus that causes COVID-19, called SARS-CoV-2, continues to mutate, giving rise to highly transmissible new variants that have evolved to better evade immunity. These include NB.1.8.1 aka "Nimbus," which causes a painful "razor blade throat".

What to Expect

Historically, the summer wave in the U.S. has peaked in late July or August, but COVID activity can persist well into September. As people's immunity from prior infection and vaccination wanes, experts warn that many Americans will be susceptible to infection this summer.

The CDC is still keeping a close eye on the situation. Even though overall national activity is still low, the rise in activity in states like Texas means that people should stay alert, especially those who are more likely to get sick, such as very young children under 4, the elderly, and people with weakened immune systems.

Texas State Monitoring

COVID-19 cases reported increased in Texas by 3.1% in week 2 compared to the previous MMWR week, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services surveillance data, confirming the upward trajectory that federal data suggests.